What the study found
Among the compared carbon dioxide-based sustainable aviation fuel pathways, methanol-to-jet via direct carbon dioxide hydrogenation had the lowest net production costs, and Fischer-Tropsch had the highest. The study also found that alcohol-based routes had higher carbon and energy efficiencies than Fischer-Tropsch.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors note that aviation accounts for around 2.4% of global carbon dioxide emissions and that demand is expected to grow significantly by 2050. The study suggests that these cost and efficiency comparisons are relevant because sustainable aviation fuels are considered a key mitigation strategy.
What the researchers tested
The researchers carried out a harmonized techno-economic assessment, meaning they compared costs and performance using a common framework, for three power-to-liquid routes for e-kerosene production: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, methanol-to-jet with two variants, and ethanol-to-jet via direct carbon dioxide gas fermentation. They modeled the pathways in Aspen Plus V14 and evaluated regional scenarios for the EU, the USA, and the Middle East.
What worked and what didn't
Electrolysis, the process of using electricity to produce hydrogen, accounted for 55–80% of capital expenditure across all scenarios, making hydrogen production a major cost driver. Net production costs ranged from 2.8 to 8.2 USD per kg of sustainable aviation fuel, which is at least three times the approximate cost of fossil Jet A-1 fuel; methanol-to-jet via direct carbon dioxide hydrogenation was consistently the lowest-cost pathway, while Fischer-Tropsch performed worst. Ethanol-to-jet was intermediate, and the abstract notes uncertainties linked to large-scale gas fermentation.
What to keep in mind
The abstract does not provide detailed limitations beyond noting uncertainty for large-scale gas fermentation in the ethanol-to-jet route. The results are limited to the pathways, regions, and model setup described in the study.
Key points
- Methanol-to-jet via direct carbon dioxide hydrogenation had the lowest net production costs.
- Fischer-Tropsch had the highest costs among the compared pathways.
- Electrolysis accounted for 55–80% of capital expenditure in all scenarios.
- Net production costs ranged from 2.8 to 8.2 USD per kg of sustainable aviation fuel.
- Alcohol-based routes showed higher carbon and energy efficiencies than Fischer-Tropsch.
- The study compared pathways across the EU, the USA, and the Middle East.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- MtJ-2 has the lowest costs among compared CO2-based SAF pathways
- Authors:
- Severin Sendlhofer, Willy Duan, Raphael Allgäuer, Markus Maly, Robert Paulnsteiner, Dominik Wimmer, Christoph Markowitsch
- Institutions:
- Montanuniversität Leoben, Montanuniversität Leoben, Montanuniversität Leoben, Montanuniversität Leoben
- Publication date:
- 2026-03-11
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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