What the study found
The study found that seasonal climate conditions explain most of the variability in mean midlatitude storm activity, while synoptic conditions, meaning short-term weather patterns, explain more of the variability in individual storm properties. The authors also report that long-term climate trends contribute more to storm-associated heat anomalies than to storm intensity.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors conclude that variables directly linked to global warming provide a clearer pathway for weather attribution. The findings indicate that different storm measures are controlled by climate and by short-term atmospheric conditions to different degrees.
What the researchers tested
The researchers used 84 years of ERA-5 reanalysis data and convolutional neural networks, a type of machine learning model, to compare the relative importance of seasonal climatology and synoptic conditions. They assessed both averaged storm activity and individual storm properties, and then isolated the effect of long-term climate trends on individual storms.
What worked and what didn't
The models successfully predicted over 90% of the variability in mean storm activity, which the authors interpret as evidence that climate conditions dominate this average measure. For individual storm properties, only about one-third of the variability was attributed to climatic factors, so synoptic conditions dominated there. Long-term climate trends contributed little to storm-intensity variability, but their contribution to heat anomalies associated with storms was more than three times greater.
What to keep in mind
The abstract does not describe limitations in detail beyond the scope of the analysis. The summary is limited to midlatitude storms, ERA-5 reanalysis data, and the specific storm measures examined in the study.
Key points
- Seasonal climate explained over 90% of the variability in mean storm activity.
- Synoptic conditions dominated variability in individual storm properties.
- Long-term climate trends contributed little to storm-intensity variability.
- Long-term climate trends contributed more strongly to storms' associated heat anomalies.
- The authors say variables directly linked to global warming offer a clearer pathway for weather attribution.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Climate explains mean storm activity more than individual storms
- Authors:
- Or Hadas, Yohai Kaspi
- Institutions:
- Weizmann Institute of Science, Weizmann Institute of Science
- Publication date:
- 2026-01-29
- DOI:
- 10.1029/2025gl118496
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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