What the study found
The study found that agricultural prices are affected both directly by energy prices and indirectly through fertilizer prices. The authors also report that nonlinear Fourier trends were used to remove a unit root problem, which is a statistical issue that can make time-series data harder to analyze.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors suggest that the links between energy, fertilizer, and agricultural markets matter because they show how price changes in one market can affect the others. The findings indicate that these relationships should be considered when examining agricultural price behavior.
What the researchers tested
The researchers studied monthly data from January 1990 to February 2021, and extended the analysis up to 2024. They examined the direct impact of crude oil and natural gas prices on wheat, maize, and soybean markets, as well as the indirect effect through fertilizer prices, using a Fourier-based time-series analysis.
What worked and what didn't
The conditional covariances of energy and fertilizer prices captured the spikes during the 2008 crisis and the volatile period afterward. The deterministic nonlinear Fourier trends eliminated the unit root problem, and the results showed both direct and indirect effects on agricultural prices.
What to keep in mind
The abstract does not provide detailed limitations, effect sizes, or statistical significance levels. It also does not describe the full set of results for the extension through 2024 beyond noting that the analysis was extended to that year.
Key points
- Agricultural prices were affected directly by energy prices.
- Agricultural prices were also affected indirectly through fertilizer prices.
- The study used monthly data from January 1990 to February 2021, with analysis extended to 2024.
- The conditional covariances of energy and fertilizer prices captured spikes during the 2008 crisis and the volatile period afterward.
- Nonlinear Fourier trends were used to address a unit root problem.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Energy prices and fertilizer costs affect agricultural prices
- Authors:
- Özgür Bor, Burçhan Sakarya
- Institutions:
- Başkent University, Başkent University, Başkent University Hospital, Başkent University Hospital
- Publication date:
- 2026-03-03
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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