What the study found
The study found that FORESCEM, a process-based model for forecasting landscape scenarios, can spatially simulate fine-scale future land use and land cover changes. In the French case study, it reproduced both trend-based and trend-breaking trajectories under contrasting scenarios.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors say anticipating the socio-environmental impacts of spatial planning strategies is a prerequisite for sustainable development pathways. They also suggest that better modelling of land use and land cover interactions at fine scale is needed to preserve future landscape patterns.
What the researchers tested
The researchers presented FORESCEM, the FORecasting landscapE SCEnarios Model, which is designed to spatially simulate fine-scale future land use and land cover changes from narratives developed through participatory or expert-driven approaches. The model distinguishes land covers and land uses as related but different inputs, and it was applied in a French case study.
What worked and what didn't
The validation results indicate that the model can replicate land use and land cover change dynamics. The abstract says it effectively simulated both trend-based and trend-breaking trajectories under contrasting scenarios.
What to keep in mind
The abstract does not describe specific validation metrics, detailed limitations, or where the model may not have performed well. It also frames the paper as discussing the validation of land change models more broadly, but only the information in the abstract is available here.
Key points
- FORESCEM is a process-based model for forecasting landscape scenarios.
- It simulates fine-scale future land use and land cover changes.
- The model distinguishes land covers from land uses as separate but related inputs.
- In a French case study, validation showed it could reproduce land change dynamics.
- It simulated both trend-based and trend-breaking trajectories under contrasting scenarios.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- FORESCEM simulates fine-scale land use and land cover change
- Authors:
- Gaëtan Palka, Thomas Houet
- Institutions:
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer, Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique, Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique, Université d'Orléans, Université de Rennes, Université de Rennes, Université Rennes 2, Université Rennes 2
- Publication date:
- 2026-04-23
- DOI:
- 10.3390/land15050706
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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