What the study found
The study found that ecological suitability for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 circulation increased after 2020 in Europe, Asia, and the Americas. It also found that the factors associated with risk shifted, with intensive chicken density and cultivated vegetation becoming more influential after 2020.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors conclude that these results add to understanding of highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemiology. They also state that the findings identify regions where surveillance and control measures should be prioritised.
What the researchers tested
The researchers used ecological niche modelling, which examines environmental conditions linked to where a disease occurs. They built models for highly pathogenic avian influenza cases in wild and domestic birds across two periods, 2015–2020 and 2020–2022, using environmental predictors such as chicken and duck population density, human density, distance to water bodies, and land cover variables.
What worked and what didn't
The models showed increased relative influence after 2020 from intensive chicken population density and cultivated vegetation. Wild bird H5 occurrences were primarily correlated with urban areas and open water regions, and more avian species, particularly sea birds, were affected post-2020.
What to keep in mind
The abstract does not describe study limitations in detail. The findings are based on ecological niche models and the periods and species groups described in the abstract.
Key points
- Ecological suitability for HPAI H5 circulation increased after 2020 in Europe, Asia, and the Americas.
- Intensive chicken population density and cultivated vegetation became more influential predictors post-2020.
- Wild bird H5 occurrences were mainly linked to urban areas and open water regions.
- More avian species, especially sea birds, were affected after 2020.
- The authors say the results can help prioritize surveillance and control measures.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- H5N1 risk expanded in multiple regions after 2020
- Authors:
- Marie-Cécile Dupas, María F. Vincenti‐González, Madhur Dhingra, Claire Guinat, Timothée Vergne, William Wint, Guy Hendrickx, Cedric Marsboom, Marius Gilbert, Simon Dellicour
- Institutions:
- Avia-GIS (Belgium), Avia-GIS (Belgium), Hasselt University, Institute of Bioinformatics, Interactions hôtes-agents pathogènes, Interactions hôtes-agents pathogènes, Oxford Research Group, Rega Institute for Medical Research, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Vrije Universiteit Brussel
- Publication date:
- 2026-01-28
- OpenAlex record:
- View
- Image credit:
- NIAID, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0
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