What the study found
The study found that different ways of generating synthetic bed topography can change projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. In the Aurora Subglacial Basin case study, projected sea-level rise by 2300 CE varied depending on the synthetic bed method and whether basal friction coefficients were optimized.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors conclude that relatively small differences in bed representation can affect the timing and extent of grounding line retreat. They also say this points to the need for process-informed representation of basal friction in decadal- to centennial-scale sea-level projections.
What the researchers tested
The researchers reviewed commonly used methods for generating synthetic gridded bed topography datasets and their uncertainties. They then used the Aurora Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica as a case study to compare five synthetic bed generation methods in an ice sheet model under high-emission forcing scenarios, including SSP5-8.5 and RCP2.6.
What worked and what didn't
When basal friction coefficients were optimized for each bed, sea-level rise estimates at 2300 CE varied by up to 11% under SSP5-8.5 and 32% under RCP2.6. When non-optimized coefficients were used, the variation increased to up to 23% under SSP5-8.5 and 51% under RCP2.6.
What to keep in mind
The results are based on one case study area, the Aurora Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica, so the abstract does not say how directly they apply elsewhere. The abstract also does not give other limitations beyond noting uncertainties in synthetic bed generation methods.
Key points
- Different synthetic bed topographies led to different Antarctic ice-loss projections.
- Sea-level rise estimates in 2300 CE varied by up to 11% and 32% when friction was optimized.
- Without optimized friction coefficients, the variation rose to up to 23% and 51%.
- Small bed variations affected the timing and extent of grounding line retreat.
- The authors call for process-informed basal friction in long-term sea-level projections.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Synthetic bed choices alter Antarctic ice-loss projections
- Authors:
- Felicity S. McCormack, Tobias Stål, Niya Shao, Emma MacKie, Ana Fabela Hinojosa, Mareen Lösing, Jason Roberts, Shivani Ehrenfeucht, Christine Dow
- Institutions:
- Australian Antarctic Division, Australian Antarctic Division, Australian Antarctic Division, Florida College, Florida College, Monash University, Monash University, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, The University of Western Australia, University of Florida, University of Florida, University of Tasmania, University of Tasmania, University of Waterloo
- Publication date:
- 2026-04-23
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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