What the study found
The study found an annual Southern Ocean net primary production of 6.5 ± 1.36 PgC yr−1, which is higher than most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model and satellite-based estimates. The findings also indicate that many Earth system models underestimate productivity in ways that affect estimates of air-sea carbon dioxide exchange.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors conclude that these productivity estimates provide quantitative benchmarks for Southern Ocean carbon uptake. The study suggests that combining these benchmarks with airborne carbon dioxide observations and surface ocean pCO2 (the partial pressure of carbon dioxide) and temperature observations reduces uncertainty in projected end-of-century Southern Ocean carbon dioxide uptake.
What the researchers tested
The researchers constrained Southern Ocean productivity south of about 44° S by linking CMIP6-modeled productivity to modeled air-sea O2 fluxes and by applying O2 flux estimates derived from airborne O2/N2 observations. They compared these estimates with CMIP6 models, satellite-based estimates, Argo oxygen-based estimates, and observations of carbon dioxide fluxes, pCO2, and temperature.
What worked and what didn't
The oxygen-based approach produced a productivity estimate that was consistent with Argo oxygen-based estimates but higher than most CMIP6 model and satellite-based estimates. The study also found that CMIP6 models with underestimated productivity tended to show weak summer carbon dioxide uptake, and some showed excessive summer temperature-driven outgassing, leading to incorrect seasonal carbon dioxide flux cycles with summer outgassing instead of the summer uptake indicated by observations. The authors further report that these constraints reduce uncertainty in model-projected end-of-century Southern Ocean carbon dioxide uptake by 53%.
What to keep in mind
The abstract says Southern Ocean productivity estimates remain highly uncertain because of limited observations. It also notes that the suggested source of the model errors may be inadequate representation of ocean vertical mixing, but the abstract does not provide a direct test of that explanation.
- Annual Southern Ocean net primary production was estimated at 6.5 ± 1.36 PgC yr−1.
- This estimate is higher than most CMIP6 model and satellite-based estimates.
- The estimate is consistent with Argo oxygen-based estimates.
- Many CMIP6 models with underestimated productivity showed weak summer CO2 uptake and, in some cases, summer outgassing.
- Using these constraints reduced uncertainty in projected end-of-century Southern Ocean CO2 uptake by 53%.
