What the study found
The study found substantial variation in tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, and spatial clustering from 1950 to 2024. The Western Pacific basin had the highest concentration of tropical cyclones, and patterns differed across basins and over time.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors conclude that the changing and uneven tropical cyclone patterns point to the need for region-specific adaptation and risk management strategies. They present this as important because the threats are complex and evolving in the context of a warming climate.
What the researchers tested
The researchers analyzed global tropical cyclone track data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, covering both landfall and no-landfall events between 1950 and 2024. They used Emerging Hot Spots Analysis and Optimized Hot Spots Analysis to examine long-term spatial patterns and explored associations with El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, phases.
What worked and what didn't
The analyses identified persistent, diminishing, and intensifying clusters, showing heterogeneous hot and cold spot patterns worldwide. Landfall frequency increased in the North Atlantic and Southern Indian Ocean during La Niña years at the 95% confidence level, while El Niño years had more activity in the North Indian and Eastern Pacific basins at the 99% confidence level. The study also reports notable shifts in cyclone clusters over time and across basins, with uncertainty varying across regions.
What to keep in mind
The abstract does not provide detailed methodological limitations beyond noting temporal and spatial variability in uncertainty across basins. The summary also does not specify the exact sources of the environmental factors beyond sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions.
Key points
- The Western Pacific basin had the highest concentration of tropical cyclones.
- Tropical cyclone frequency and intensity varied significantly at annual and decadal scales.
- Cyclone clustering shifted over time and across basins.
- La Niña years were linked to more landfall in the North Atlantic and Southern Indian Ocean.
- El Niño years were linked to more activity in the North Indian and Eastern Pacific basins.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Tropical cyclone patterns shifted across basins from 1950 to 2024
- Authors:
- Shouraseni Sen Roy
- Institutions:
- University of Miami
- Publication date:
- 2026-03-10
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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