What the study found
The study found that the Lindø Steel Shipyard closure was associated with fewer votes for the right-wing incumbent government in Denmark. It also found that the effect did not persist and became insignificant after compensation was received.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors argue that industrial decline can affect voting through unemployment, blame, and compensation. The study suggests that compensation may reduce anti-incumbent political effects after a plant closure.
What the researchers tested
The researcher used the closure of the Lindø Steel Shipyard in Denmark as a quasi-experiment. The study combined a difference-in-differences design with national election data at the municipality level from 2001 to 2019, and it also used survey data, interview data, and an event study design.
What worked and what didn't
The difference-in-differences analysis found that the shipyard closure reduced votes for the right-wing incumbent government. The closure also increased unemployment in the short to medium term, and unemployment was negatively correlated with incumbent votes. Survey and interview data indicated that the government was blamed for handling the closure, while the EU was credited for support; after compensation, the electoral effects were no longer significant.
What to keep in mind
The abstract describes one case study, so the scope is limited to the Lindø Steel Shipyard closure in Denmark. It does not provide additional limitations beyond noting that the political effects were not persistent.
Key points
- The Lindø Steel Shipyard closure was linked to lower support for the right-wing incumbent government.
- Unemployment rose in the short to medium term after the closure and was negatively correlated with incumbent votes.
- Survey and interview data showed blame was directed at the government, while the EU was credited for support.
- The political effects were not persistent and became insignificant after compensation.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Shipyard closure reduced incumbent votes, but the effect faded after compensation
- Authors:
- Søren Frank Etzerodt
- Institutions:
- Aarhus University, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
- Publication date:
- 2026-04-06
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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