What the study found
The study found that U.S. presidential approval is persistent over time and is linked to macroeconomic conditions in several ways. The strongest and most lasting associations were with public and private sector activity, while monetary and labor market conditions were related in more varied ways.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors conclude that the findings provide a descriptive characterization of how presidential approval co-moves with a broad set of macroeconomic conditions. The study suggests that high-dimensional screening combined with dynamic analysis can complement simpler approaches in the approval literature.
What the researchers tested
The researchers examined economic correlates of U.S. presidential approval from 1953 to 2023 using a large macro-financial dataset. They used penalized variable-selection methods, Elastic Net and Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation (SCAD), to identify economically relevant predictors, then grouped the selected predictors into six economic categories and analyzed them in a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework.
What worked and what didn't
Three descriptive patterns emerged. Presidential approval showed strong persistence and retrospective dynamics, with economically relevant information appearing most clearly at short horizons and around one year; public and private sector activity had the strongest and most persistent associations; and housing and mortgage indicators tended to show delayed responses, while recession indicators showed short-run dynamics consistent with temporary rally-type patterns.
What to keep in mind
The abstract presents the findings as descriptive rather than causal. It also does not describe the full set of limitations, so scope constraints beyond the 1953 to 2023 period and the use of macro-financial data are not detailed in the available summary.
Key points
- U.S. presidential approval from 1953 to 2023 co-moved with a broad set of macroeconomic conditions.
- Public and private sector activity showed the strongest and most persistent associations with approval.
- Monetary and labor market conditions were related to approval in systematic but heterogeneous ways.
- Housing and mortgage indicators were associated with delayed responses.
- Recession indicators showed short-run dynamics consistent with temporary rally-type patterns.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Presidential approval co-moves with broad macroeconomic conditions
- Authors:
- Youssuf Abdelatif
- Institutions:
- University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee
- Publication date:
- 2026-04-02
- OpenAlex record:
- View
Get the weekly research newsletter
Stay current with scholarly research without reading academic papers — one filtered digest, every Friday.