What the study found
The study found that hotter months were associated with higher physical inactivity among adults, defined as not meeting recommended levels of physical activity. The authors also projected that physical inactivity will rise by 2050 under all climate scenarios they examined.
Why the authors say this matters
The authors conclude that rising temperatures may lead to additional premature deaths and productivity losses. They say heat-adaptive urban design, subsidised climate-controlled exercise facilities, targeted heat-risk communication, and emissions reductions are important to help reduce these burdens.
What the researchers tested
The researchers analysed data from 156 countries covering 2000 to 2022 using a binned fixed-effects panel regression model. They examined the relationship between adults' age-standardised physical inactivity and exposure to different annual temperature ranges, then used climate projections under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to forecast future inactivity, deaths, and productivity losses.
What worked and what didn't
Each additional month with mean temperature above 27.8°C was associated with a 1.44 percentage point increase in physical inactivity globally, and a 1.85 percentage point increase in low-income and middle-income countries. By 2050, projected increases in physical inactivity ranged from 0.98 to 1.75 percentage points overall, with hotspots above 4 percentage points in Central America, the Caribbean, eastern sub-Saharan Africa, and equatorial southeast Asia. The projections were also translated into an additional 0.47-0.70 million deaths and Intl$2.40-3.68 billion in annual productivity losses.
What to keep in mind
The summary describes projections based on modelled climate scenarios and estimated exposure effects, so the future estimates depend on those assumptions. The abstract does not provide additional limitations beyond the methods and scope described.
Key points
- Hotter months were associated with higher adult physical inactivity worldwide.
- Each extra month above 27.8°C was linked to a 1.44 percentage point increase globally.
- Low-income and middle-income countries showed a larger increase of 1.85 percentage points per additional hot month.
- By 2050, physical inactivity is projected to rise under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5.
- The projected increases were translated into 0.47-0.70 million additional deaths and Intl$2.40-3.68 billion in annual productivity losses.
- Hotspot regions included Central America, the Caribbean, eastern sub-Saharan Africa, and equatorial southeast Asia.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Rising temperatures are linked to more physical inactivity
- Authors:
- Christian García-Witulski, Mariano Rabassa, Óscar Melo, Juliana Helo Sarmiento
- Institutions:
- Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Universidad de Los Andes, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia
- Publication date:
- 2026-03-17
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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