What the study found
The study found that projected land cover change in the Cijangkelok Watershed is associated with a small rise in flood discharge. The authors report that the 2035 scenario shows land conversion mainly from dryland to rice fields, built-up areas, and forest plantations.
Why the authors say this matters
The findings indicate that land cover change contributes to higher flood potential. The authors conclude that the increase is still at a moderate level because much of the conversion is to rice fields, which they describe as temporary water storage that delays direct runoff.
What the researchers tested
The researchers analyzed land cover changes using Curve Number (a runoff-related parameter), Impervious area, and Initial Abstraction (the amount of rainfall absorbed before runoff begins). They used land cover data from 2009 and 2022, modeled a 2035 scenario with QGIS MOLUSCE using an artificial neural network (ANN), and ran HEC-HMS simulations with SCS and Snyder Unit Hydrograph methods.
What worked and what didn't
The 2035 land cover prediction had a minimum overall error of 0.0332 and a Kappa coefficient of 0.765, which the authors describe as good reliability. Composite Curve Number increased from 67.9 in 2009 to 68.0 in 2022 and 68.4 in 2035; Impervious area increased from 5.6 to 5.7 and 6.4; and Initial Abstraction decreased from 24.0 to 23.9 and 23.5. Flood discharge rose from 617.2 m³/s to 623.8 m³/s to 641.3 m³/s with the SCS method, and from 621.3 to 621.6 to 630.5 m³/s with the Snyder method. The statistical comparison with frequency-based design flood discharge gave PBIAS values of 0.1–0.2 and NSE of 1.0, which the abstract describes as very good.
What to keep in mind
The abstract provides no detailed discussion of study limitations beyond the model-based nature of the work. The reported flood increase is specific to the Cijangkelok Watershed and to the 2009, 2022, and 2035 land cover scenarios described in the study.
Key points
- Projected 2035 land cover change is concentrated in conversions from dryland to rice fields, built-up areas, and forest plantations.
- Composite Curve Number rose slightly across the study years, while Initial Abstraction decreased.
- Simulated flood discharge increased under both the SCS and Snyder methods.
- The 2035 land cover model had an overall error of 0.0332 and a Kappa coefficient of 0.765.
- The authors state that the flood increase remains at a moderate level because rice fields can temporarily store water.
Disclosure
- Research title:
- Projected land cover changes slightly increase flood discharge
- Authors:
- Vika Febriyani, Y Suryadi, Tri Wahyudin Ahmad, Arief Yudho Wicaksono, Yosephina Puspa Setyoasri
- Institutions:
- Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology
- Publication date:
- 2026-02-24
- OpenAlex record:
- View
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